Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Unlike Israel, the United States has to worry about not merely the success or failure of exercising the military option but also about the impact of military action on the price of oil and, above all, America's future relations with the Muslim world in general and the Middle East in particular. No matter what advice the narrowly based autocracies of the Persian Gulf may give Washington, the Arab publics in a rapidly democratizing environment, regardless of sectarian affiliations, will not forgive the United States for a military adventure that will be widely interpreted as a direct attack on “Islam”.

Paradoxically, an attack on predominantly Shia Iran will end up alienating the Sunni-dominated Muslim Middle East from the United States for a long time to come. If this happens, Osama bin Laden would be chuckling from beyond his watery grave.

However, it is this prospect of the alienation of the Arab and Muslim countries from the United States that is a major reason why Israel is interested in dragging the United States into a war with Iran. A goal of Israel’s foreign policy has been to convince American policy makers and the American public that it is the only trustworthy ally that the United States has in a hostile Middle East. An American military venture against Iran will turn this argument it into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The second major reason why Israel advocates war against Iran is related to its objective of preserving its military dominance in the Middle East. The real threat that a nuclear capable Iran poses to Israel is not that it will launch a nuclear strike against Israel. As Fareed Zakaria has pointed out, the Iranian rulers, even if most Americans may consider them unreasonable, are “rational actors” in the sense that their major goal is regime and, I would add state, preservation. They are not an irrational bunch bent on committing collective national suicide - which is what would happen given Israel’s second-strike nuclear capacity based, among other platforms, on its submarines.

No one could have summed up this argument better than Paul Pillar, who spent 28 years in the U.S. intelligence community in which his last position was National Intelligence Officer for the Near East and South Asia. According to Pillar, “More than three decades of history demonstrate that the Islamic Republic’s rulers, like most rulers elsewhere, are overwhelmingly concerned with preserving their regime and their power - in this life, not some future one.”

http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/03/13/why-israel-really-advocates-war-on-iran/

Liberal-

The main issue with this source is that the author, Mohammad Ayoob, vastly overestimates the consequences of military action against Iran while simultaneously attempting to manipulate Israel's motivation into an evil and manipulative thing that should not be supported by western governments. A military strike against Iran would not, as Mohammad believes, alienate the rest of the muslim world. He states that "Paradoxically, an attack on predominantly Shia Iran will end up alienating the Sunni-dominated Muslim Middle East from the United States for a long time to come". This is not the case. Iran is one of the few countries that has a Shitte Muslim majority. Other islamic countries have a Sunni majority. It is a well established fact that Sunni and Shitte muslims do not get along. Shittes living in Sunni controlled countries have been constantly oppressed and attacked. For example, the Sunni Iraq fought a long and bloody war against the Shitte Iran.

Israel's motivations are also grossly misrepresented in this source. If Iran learns how to create nuclear weapons, Israel faces the very real threat of nuclear annihilation. Mahmoud Ahmadenijad, the current president of Iran, is a known anti-semitic. He has stated in the past that he does not believe that the holocaust occurred. He has also stated that he wants to "wipe Israel off the map". Israel has a very real reason to be afraid. Though Ahmadenijad is not the most powerful figure in Iranian politics (Ayatollah Khamenei is the current supreme leader) his viewpoints reflect the views of the leading members in Iranian politics. Israel is not trying to invade Iran because of some political game with the United States, as Mohammad would have us believe. Israel is preparing to invade Iran because the leaders of Iran have stated in the past that they want Israel destroyed, and if these leaders acquired a nuclear bomb, they would finally have the means to do so.

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